Carl "DL" Pavano

Carl Pavano made his first start for the Indians today. And he was terrible. See for yourself:

Cleveland	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Pavano (L, 0-1)	1.0	6	9	9	3	1	2	81.00

Which prompted Nick to ask if he was ever good when he played for the Yankees. And I honestly couldn't remember. So let's have a look:

Hmmm. Ignoring the whole "24 games in 4 years" aspect, he really could have been worse (maybe he would have been worse if he had played more... it's difficult to say). In 2005, he started more games than Kevin Brown and was far better and more dependable. Here's Brown's 2005 line:

Though clearly he was way past his prime. Despite the W-L record, he compares favorably to Jaret Wright, a guy with similar injury problems but who got far less crap from the Yankees and the fans:

So it stands that he could have been worse.

Despite the fact that he lied to his team and was perceived by a lot of people to have no desire to play, I was hoping for the best for good old DL. A new start without the media craziness of New York sounded perfect, especially if he is finally healthy. A lot of guys struggle in New York - Contreras, Weaver, Brown are a few that come immediately to mind - so maybe getting out of there would be exactly what he needed.

Not the best way to start the "New Carl Pavano" campaign.

The Indians scored eight runs. Even if the Rangers had only played the first two innings, they still would have won. All of that's on Carl.

Yes, it's one game. But for a guy who's trying to re-invent himself and, possibly, trying to get someone to take him seriously and give him more than just a one year deal, he's going to have to get a lot better.

Otherwise he'll have to put Cleveland on the growing list of cities to avoid.

Oh, and I'm still taking suggestions for what to put on the sign I take to the park when Pavano pitches.

AL East Predictions

I, too, am going to start with just the division in which my team plays (which is probably stupid, since it is often difficult for me to separate hope from actual belief; anyone who has seen my March Madness brackets the last 6 years can attest to this). Here it goes anyway.

1. New York Yankees
Yes. They are off to a rough first three games. But they did the same thing in 1998, and I’m fairly certain we all know how that ended. Not that this is based entirely on superstition and past performance. I just find it difficult to believe that either the Rays or the Sox are going to be able to topple this team. They’re both good teams, but neither of them were as aggressive this off-season as the Yanks were (and for good reason). I also think that having A-Rod out for a month or so doesn’t hurt this team as much as everyone thinks it will; addition by subtraction, and they’re subtracting a lot of drama, the benefit of which was definitely seen during spring training. This is not one of those teams where you say “if they stay healthy,” because even if they don’t, they have enough depth to keep it going. So, cautious optimism (as opposed to blatant denial, like last year).

2. Boston Red Sox
How pleased were these guys to have dumped Manny last year? I’m pretty sure Jason Varitek and Curt Schilling were giggling daily during that saga. Schilling has now officially retired, which was actually the decent thing for him to do. It will be interesting to see if he and/or Mussina make it into the Hall on the first ballot. But I digress. Their pitching is stellar; there’s no denying that. I doubt that Smoltz is going to be as much help as everyone thinks he’s going to be, but still. It doesn’t suck to have John Smoltz on your team. To me, the key to this team is whether Varitek can come back from last year. The fact that the Red Sox were willing to work with his kind of absurd monetary demands to bring him back signals that they have faith that he can. They may be in the market for a back-up catcher before the trade deadline though. The Red Sox didn’t really get any younger this year, which is something that the Yankees are normally guilty of. Yeah, they picked up Baldelli, who hopefully has his health under control, but Big Papi, Mike Lowell and Varitek are all showing their age. Pedroia needs to have another MVP year. I think they beat the Rays (barely), but don’t overtake the Yankees. I also don’t think they’ll get the Wild Card.

3. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
Maybe I’m just naive, but I think this team over-achieved last year. That is, a bunch of guys had better-than-average years, which probably won’t happen again. I don’t think Pat Burrell helps too much, except as a guy who can lead. They’re a fun, exciting team to watch, especially their young pitchers, but you put their line-up next to the Yankees lineup and it’s kind of silly. It will be interesting to see how (and when) they use David Price and whether last year’s success will bring them any serious fans. I have a feeling a lot of people disagree with me here, and I will fully admit that it is still hard for me to think of the Rays as a great team (yes, I know they went to the Series last year, but still. It’s a menal thing). I fully admit I could be really, really wrong about this one.

4. Toronto Blue Jays
Half of the Jays’ problem is that they play in the AL East. The other half of their problem is that Roy Halladay can’t start 162 consecutive games. They don’t seem to have gotten any better though, and I’m not sure why they picked up Kevin Millar. If the Nationals are the Island of Misfit Toys, then the Blue Jays are where post-prime players go to fade off into oblivion. Just imagine if Halladay played for the Indians or the Brewers or the Twins or another team that’s one player away from possibly being very good (I bet he does it all the time).

5. Baltimore Orioles
The O’s got better. Well, offensively. Wiggington brings a little bit of power, Izturis brings some speed and Pie is a fun name to announce. Add them to Brian Roberts who has a lot of talent and Melvin Mora who, as I recall, had a good WBC and you have a strange if not OK lineup. But that’s only half the game. And the pitching half ain’t pretty. Still, if they get some decent starts out of Uehara and Guthrie, they may improve on last year’s campaign. They might even end up running close to the Blue Jays.

There you have it.

AL Central Predictions

For the purposes of sanity, I’m going to ignore the shelling of Cleveland’s ace on Opening Day yesterday for the purposes of composing these predictions. Without sounding too much like a homer, I’m going to attempt to build a case for how the Indians will win the AL Central this year.

1. Indians

2. Royals

3. Twins

4. White Sox

5. Tigers

The Indians: The Indians winning the Central is dependent on a lot of things going right. First, the Indians need to get some semblance of production out of Hafner. With the amount of money they’ve put into him, they need at least a .250/25 HR season out of him to have any shot at the post season. I think that is possible, but if he starts slow I wouldn’t be surprised if the boo-birds came out early with him batting cleanup everyday. I think Wedge is a smarter manager than people give him credit for — it would have been easy to drop Hafner into the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup, but he knows the two main things he needs to get better are confidence and at-bats. Both of those would be taken away if he was hidden at the bottom of the lineup.

After Hafner, the next thing the Indians need is for some starting pitching to develop, and quickly. I think, yesterday not withstanding, Lee and Carmona will both be solid this year; but it’s the other 3 spots that worry me the most, especially the 4-5. Obviously Pavano can’t be trusted to stay healthy all year- if he gets the Indians 10 wins, I’ll be thrilled. Reyes is also supposedly solid, but an injury risk. Lewis/Sowers/Laffey/Huff: I’m hoping at least one of them steps up significantly to tie up the back end of the rotation, but history would suggest we may not be so lucky.

Finally, Wedge needs to figure out the best way to take advantage of Martinez and Shoppach. I believe he has stated that they will catch Carmona and Lee respectively, and that the other 3 rotation spots would fill in as each catcher got a feel for each pitcher. I think that’s a fine plan, but I worry that Shoppach may have a sophmore slump as pitchers figure him out (he’s never going to win a batting title anyways). Basically, some combination of Martinez, Shoppach, Hafner, and Garko need to fill the C, 1B, and DH spots each day, and if Wedge could get production out of all 4 of them, then I’m sure he’d be pleased.

The Royals: Picking the Royals to place second this year has more to do with the rest of the division, and less to do with their own improvements, but that’s not to say they haven’t added talent; they have. Alex Gordon should emerge as a solid 3B, I think Mike Jacobs will be the power 1B they need; Mark Teahan has apparently been raking at 2B and has won the job, so the Royals have an improved lineup over recent years. Coco Crisp is another new edition that will give them speed at the top of the lineup. This, plus a solid starting staff, should keep them in contention (at least for the first few months). With the Royals, you never know, but I’m willing to at least consider the possibility of them turning it around this year.

The Twins: I think the Twins probably have the best staff in the Division (after Baker comes off the DL), but with Mauer out indefinitely with his weird back injury, I think they don’t have enough pop in their lineup, and that opposing staffs will just pitch around Morneau. Their pitching will keep them in games, but I don’t think enough of them; plus Liriano has the chance to be this years Rich Harden; great when he’s pitching, but often injured.

The White Sox: Aging a year did nothing to help this team. I’m being mean by putting them this far down in the division, as they’ll probably finish higher, but I can’t think of any reason they’d do this well, other than Alexei Ramirez, who is due for a killer sophomore slump, with the way he swings.

The Tigers: Their entire pitching staff is either hurt or crazy (literally, Willis is on the DL with an anxiety disorder, likely caused by his inability to pitch), and their city is circling the drain. I predict their average attendance will rival the Marlins, and that along with the fact that they’ll be 10 games out by the All-Star break will cause a fire-sale unlike one we’ve seen in a while. Unfortunately for Sara, I predict Miguel Cabrera will end up on the Red Sox, with Boston moving Youkilis over to 3rd. This will be their response to Texiera signing with the Yankees, and a fairly effective one; Cabrera is also going to be an elite 1st baseman for some time (if he can keep his weight down, otherwise he’ll start to wander into Mo Vaughn/David Ortiz territory).

Well that’s it so far — let me know what you think in the comments.

Nick and Sara

We’re just two baseball fans from opposite sides of the MLB spectrum. Nick is a Clevelander, born and bred, while Sara has taken her Yankee blood and gone to live in the Cleve.

The plan is to take our long and often passionate baseball discussions and translate them to print, all the while maintaining our deeply held and beloved biases. We’ll talk about other stuff, too, but we usually end up coming back to the Yankees and the Indians (you’ve been warned).