For the purposes of sanity, I’m going to ignore the shelling of Cleveland’s ace on Opening Day yesterday for the purposes of composing these predictions. Without sounding too much like a homer, I’m going to attempt to build a case for how the Indians will win the AL Central this year.
1. Indians
2. Royals
3. Twins
4. White Sox
5. Tigers
The Indians: The Indians winning the Central is dependent on a lot of things going right. First, the Indians need to get some semblance of production out of Hafner. With the amount of money they’ve put into him, they need at least a .250/25 HR season out of him to have any shot at the post season. I think that is possible, but if he starts slow I wouldn’t be surprised if the boo-birds came out early with him batting cleanup everyday. I think Wedge is a smarter manager than people give him credit for — it would have been easy to drop Hafner into the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup, but he knows the two main things he needs to get better are confidence and at-bats. Both of those would be taken away if he was hidden at the bottom of the lineup.
After Hafner, the next thing the Indians need is for some starting pitching to develop, and quickly. I think, yesterday not withstanding, Lee and Carmona will both be solid this year; but it’s the other 3 spots that worry me the most, especially the 4-5. Obviously Pavano can’t be trusted to stay healthy all year- if he gets the Indians 10 wins, I’ll be thrilled. Reyes is also supposedly solid, but an injury risk. Lewis/Sowers/Laffey/Huff: I’m hoping at least one of them steps up significantly to tie up the back end of the rotation, but history would suggest we may not be so lucky.
Finally, Wedge needs to figure out the best way to take advantage of Martinez and Shoppach. I believe he has stated that they will catch Carmona and Lee respectively, and that the other 3 rotation spots would fill in as each catcher got a feel for each pitcher. I think that’s a fine plan, but I worry that Shoppach may have a sophmore slump as pitchers figure him out (he’s never going to win a batting title anyways). Basically, some combination of Martinez, Shoppach, Hafner, and Garko need to fill the C, 1B, and DH spots each day, and if Wedge could get production out of all 4 of them, then I’m sure he’d be pleased.
The Royals: Picking the Royals to place second this year has more to do with the rest of the division, and less to do with their own improvements, but that’s not to say they haven’t added talent; they have. Alex Gordon should emerge as a solid 3B, I think Mike Jacobs will be the power 1B they need; Mark Teahan has apparently been raking at 2B and has won the job, so the Royals have an improved lineup over recent years. Coco Crisp is another new edition that will give them speed at the top of the lineup. This, plus a solid starting staff, should keep them in contention (at least for the first few months). With the Royals, you never know, but I’m willing to at least consider the possibility of them turning it around this year.
The Twins: I think the Twins probably have the best staff in the Division (after Baker comes off the DL), but with Mauer out indefinitely with his weird back injury, I think they don’t have enough pop in their lineup, and that opposing staffs will just pitch around Morneau. Their pitching will keep them in games, but I don’t think enough of them; plus Liriano has the chance to be this years Rich Harden; great when he’s pitching, but often injured.
The White Sox: Aging a year did nothing to help this team. I’m being mean by putting them this far down in the division, as they’ll probably finish higher, but I can’t think of any reason they’d do this well, other than Alexei Ramirez, who is due for a killer sophomore slump, with the way he swings.
The Tigers: Their entire pitching staff is either hurt or crazy (literally, Willis is on the DL with an anxiety disorder, likely caused by his inability to pitch), and their city is circling the drain. I predict their average attendance will rival the Marlins, and that along with the fact that they’ll be 10 games out by the All-Star break will cause a fire-sale unlike one we’ve seen in a while. Unfortunately for Sara, I predict Miguel Cabrera will end up on the Red Sox, with Boston moving Youkilis over to 3rd. This will be their response to Texiera signing with the Yankees, and a fairly effective one; Cabrera is also going to be an elite 1st baseman for some time (if he can keep his weight down, otherwise he’ll start to wander into Mo Vaughn/David Ortiz territory).
Well that’s it so far — let me know what you think in the comments.
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